The Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers could both get into the NFL playoffs with a Tie. Why attempting it isn't a good idea.
Can you imagine sitting down for the final Sunday Night Football of the 2021 regular season and getting 2.5 hours of Derek Carr and Justin Herbert taking knees -- purposely trying to tie a professional football game? There is a scenario where doing just that (appears to) makes sense for both teams.
It's a classic Prisoner's Dilemma. Two players have the opportunity to cooperate for their own competitive interests.
But, like any prisoner's dilemma, it just doesn't make sense. By attempting to cooperate, you make yourself vulnerable to the sucker's payoff where your opponent takes advantage of you for attempting to cooperate.
In episode 21 of Game Theory, Chris and I look at this scenario in a vacuum and in this specific situation. This happened before in 2016 with the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions.
What's at stake
If the Indianapolis Colts lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars, then the Chargers and Raiders can both get into the NFL Playoffs if the game ends in a tie, creating this potential Prisoner's Dilemma.
However, it's not that simple. Check out the exact playoff scenarios below via NFL.com.
Las Vegas Raiders (9-7) (vs. Los Angeles Chargers (9-7), Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC)
Las Vegas clinches playoff berth with:
LV win OR
LV tie + IND loss OR
IND loss + PIT loss or tie
Los Angeles Chargers (9-7) (at Las Vegas (9-7), Sunday night, 8:20 PM ET, NBC)
Los Angeles Chargers clinch playoff berth with:
1. LAC win or tie
As you can see, the Raiders could get into the playoffs with a loss if the Baltimore Ravens beat the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Jags beat the Colts. Because those two games are being played hours before the Raiders and Chargers play, the teams will know what's at stake when their game kicks off.
If the Steelers and Colts lose, and the Raiders have time to prepare, it's possible that they elect to sit their most important players so as to preserve their health for the playoffs.
If those things don't happen, the Raiders and Chargers will have the exact same stakes from a distance in that a win or a tie would mean playoffs.
To summarize: the Chargers need a win or a tie to get in, but the Raiders have other avenues to getting.
Of course, the stakes aren't exactly even for the Chargers and Raiders because simply getting in isn't good enough. By winning, you improve your seeding which could be the difference between playing outside in the cold in Buffalo or Boston or playing in better weather say in Nashville.
Should the Prisoner's Dilemma happen, we know that the only thing to do is act selfishly and play to win.